| The way that you progress as a horse racing | | | | claimers to 10k claimers have a big advantage. In |
| handicapper is by keeping good accurate notes | | | | other words, you are seeing how much weight |
| that you can refer to when you want to check | | | | the spreads have and therefore how much each |
| your progress and avoid making the same | | | | one should be used in your calculations. |
| mistakes. But keeping notes is not that simple for | | | | 3. This is where your note keeping should pay off. |
| some people and being organized in your thinking | | | | You have watched the factors you wanted to |
| is an absolute must when picking winners. | | | | become expert at and have a good collection of |
| First you must identify key handicapping factors | | | | notes. You have determines, for instance, that |
| that you want to follow. If you want to become | | | | speed is only a good determining factor if a horse |
| a master at using speed figures to pick winners, | | | | has at least a 5 point advantage in speed figures |
| then you must keep track of the speed figures | | | | in its last three races. Yet you notice the crowd is |
| that you used to make decisions about bets. If | | | | betting a horse with only a 2 point advantage |
| you want to use pace as a handicapping figure | | | | down to even money. You look at the other |
| that you use to rate the competitors, then you | | | | contenders and find a horse with good early |
| must note how you thought a race would shape | | | | speed and know that the advantage it has in |
| up and then you must watch the race and see | | | | early speed will make it competitive at the end |
| how closely you were able to call the position of | | | | and it is at 5-1 odds. You know from past |
| each horse during the race. | | | | experience that it is a good bet so you play it. |
| Here is what you are actually trying to accomplish | | | | The reason the crowd didn't know it is because |
| when you are using your own notes to become a | | | | most don't keep notes and don't understand how |
| better handicapper. | | | | important the spread is in important handicapping |
| 1. Learn how each horse's projected figure, | | | | figures. If you took a poll of the crowd they'd tell |
| whether pace, speed, class, will affect its ability to | | | | you the horse was the favorite because it had |
| compete. | | | | the best speed figure and that's important. But |
| 2. Learn how important the spread is when | | | | you know from your notes, that while speed is |
| comparing those figures in each class of race. | | | | important, it doesn't matter much unless there is |
| 3. Learn how to exploit the differences and the | | | | at least a 5 point spread. The crowd over |
| crowd's opinion of those factors to find good | | | | estimates the horses advantage. That is how you |
| value bets. | | | | find good value bets among the other contenders. |
| Here is what each of those points really means. | | | | You won't find a bet in every race this way and it |
| 1. Once you decide which factor(s) you want to | | | | will take work to do this. You have to keep well |
| rate, the next job is to write them down for | | | | written notes and state why you liked a horse in |
| each race you handicap. Then, watch the race | | | | a race and then see what happens and write that |
| and note how each horse performed. After a | | | | down. Then watch the race and look at your |
| while you may start to notice a pattern. You will | | | | opinions at the end of the race to see how well |
| also start to have a valid opinion based on | | | | they held up. That is how you will learn and that is |
| watching numerous races with horses that | | | | how you will have an advantage over the crowd. |
| showed that figure. For instance, let's saying you | | | | The notes are feedback and without feedback |
| are watching claiming races for older horses at 6 | | | | you won't improve. |
| furlongs at your favorite track. You start to | | | | You will find that most people learn almost |
| notice that a horse with a superior early pace | | | | everything they know about handicapping in the |
| figure is usually within a few lengths of the leader | | | | first 10 trips to the race track. After that they go |
| or wins the race. Now, each time you see a | | | | over and over again and make the same |
| horse like that, you know it must be considered a | | | | mistakes over and over again and never progress |
| contender or an exotic play. | | | | beyond that point because they didn't keep notes |
| 2. If you are following the three major factors, | | | | and have a hazy recollection of what works and |
| speed, class, pace, and notice that one is not | | | | why. Most people, truth be told, are just trying to |
| really much of a determining factor, that is | | | | get lucky at the horse races and everyone can't |
| important, especially when we get to part three. | | | | be lucky. For the 9 out of 10 days when you're |
| During the second phase you are trying to | | | | not lucky, you better be good. Picking winners for |
| determine how important a 3 tick advantage is in | | | | profit takes skill and good horse racing |
| early speed or if horse's dropping from 15k | | | | handicapping. |